Heating in Switzerland

From 2000 – 2018 oil heating has decreased in CH on average 1%. 2000-2018 Heat pumps have increased 0.8% p.a. their electricity demand. Gas heating has increased by 0.3% avg. 2000-2018. 90% of residences have central heating.

Heat pumps will need at this rate +2TWh electricity by 2030. This is equal to the current CH solar generation. Solar can produce electricity for own consumption, with no subsidy, at 18 c/kWh. Since heat pumps are three times as efficient as resistance heating, this is equal to 6cts/kWh for spatial heating. This is cheaper than gas.

In total spatial heating and hot water will increase electricity demand by 4% by 2030.

In 2018, solar production is increasing 300MW p.a., or 0.5% of total electricity demand. At the end of 2018, total PV in Switzerland was 2GW PV (3%). The Energy Strategy 2030 foresees a limit of 5% solar by 2030, but current trends will exceed this by 2022. An increase to 500MW p.a. could lead to 9GW installed solar, or 15% electricity demand, by 2030. Total Switzerland electricity consumption in 2017 was 58.5 TWh. Residential use was 30% of this, heat pumps 3%.

The increase in the use of heat pumps and electric vehicles will have a rebound effect of new solar. The current trend towards 6% increase in solar power generation covers a 4% heat pump increase and 1.5-3.1% electric vehicle demand.